Climate predictions have a broad range
of uncertainty. They require assumptions about the future world
economy that are very uncertain even if there are no disruptions, and
being unable to account for recessions, pandemics, and other
disruptions.
Then they must predict how a future
world economy will affect the atmosphere, particularly the kinds and
amounts of gaseous emissions. That involves assumptions about future
energy sources and emission controls.
These inputs go into various algorithms
for modeling global climate. There is still disagreement about some
aspects of these models, such as how to treat the effects of clouds.
Future Climate Effects are Very Uncertain
Climate predictions have a broad range of uncertainty. They require assumptions about the future world economy that are very uncertain even if there are no disruptions, and being unable to account for recessions, pandemics, and other disruptions.
Then they must predict how a future world economy will affect the atmosphere, particularly the kinds and amounts of gaseous emissions. That involves assumptions about future energy sources and emission controls.
These inputs go into various algorithms for modeling global climate. There is still disagreement about some aspects of these models, such as how to treat the effects of clouds.
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